Pennsylvania Death Projections
Division of Health Informatics
Posted 2024-09-24
Introduction
This page shows the results of models used to calculate projections for the number of Pennsylvania resident deaths from 2024 to 2026. The projected figures should be used cautiously. Considerable variation may occur between these projections and the final data from 2024 to 2026, especially for the forecasts for small counties. A short description of the data and methods used to calculate the projections follows the results.
Download statistics
Download all statistics from this page here.
Pennsylvania total
The number of Pennsylvania resident deaths is projected to be 139,867 in 2026, which is a change of 1.3 percent compared to the number of deaths in 2023, the most recent year with final data. This is an average annual change in the number of deaths of 0.4 percent, compared to the average annual change in the number of deaths of 0.3 percent from 2000 to 2023.
The plot below shows the number of Pennsylvania resident deaths from 2000 to 2023, as well as the corresponding projections for 2024 to 2026.
Pennsylvania counties
The table below shows the number of Pennsylvania resident deaths by county for 2000, 2010 and 2023; the corresponding projections for 2026; and the average annual percent change in the number of deaths from 2000 to 2023 and from 2023 to 2026.
We can also display data from the previous table as a map of Pennsylvania counties. The map below shows the average annual percent change in the number of Pennsylvania resident deaths from 2000 to 2023 and from 2023 to 2026.
Data and methods
All data used on this page are from the Pennsylvania Death Certificate dataset. An exponential smoothing state space model was used to project the number of deaths by year for 2024 to 2026 for Pennsylvania and each county in Pennsylvania. The county projections were then udpated to be consistent with the Pennsylvania total.