Pennsylvania Department of Health

Pennsylvania Death Forecasts

Author

Division of Statistical Support

Published

February 20, 2025

Introduction

This page shows the results of models used to calculate forecasts for the number of Pennsylvania resident deaths from 2024 to 2026. The forecasted figures should be used cautiously. Considerable variation may occur between these forecasts and the final data from 2024 to 2026, especially for the forecasts for small number of deaths. A short description of the data and methods used to calculate the forecasts follows the results.

Download statistics

Download all statistics from this page here.

Forecast for the state

Forecasts by county

Pennsylvania resident deaths by county, selected 2000-2023 final and 2024-2026 forecast
County 2000 2010 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Forecasts by MCD

Pennsylvania resident deaths by MCD, selected 2000-2023 final and 2024-2026 forecast
County MCD 2000 2010 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Forecasts by cause of death

Pennsylvania resident deaths by cause, selected 2000-2023 final and 2024-2026 forecast
Cause 2000 2010 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Forecasts by sex

Pennsylvania resident deaths by sex, selected 2000-2023 final and 2024-2026 forecast
Sex 2000 2010 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Forecasts by age

Pennsylvania resident deaths by age, selected 2000-2023 final and 2024-2026 forecast
Age 2000 2010 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Data and methods

All data used on this page are from the Pennsylvania Death Certificate dataset.

An exponential smoothing state space model was used to forecast the number of deaths by year for Pennsylvania and for each value of the demographic variables. When the average number of deaths in the training data was less than 10, or an insufficient number of years of data had over zero deaths, the forecast was not calculated. This is displayed as an “NaN”.