This page shows the results of models used to calculate forecasts for the number of Pennsylvania resident deaths from 2025 to 2027. The forecasted figures should be used cautiously. Considerable variation may occur between these forecasts and the final data from 2025 to 2027, especially for the forecasts for small number of deaths. A short description of the data and methods used to calculate the forecasts follows the results.
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Forecasts by MCD
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Forecasts by cause of death
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Forecasts by sex
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Forecasts by age
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Data and methods
All data used on this page are from the Pennsylvania Death Certificate dataset.
An exponential smoothing state space model was used to forecast the number of deaths by year for Pennsylvania and for each value of the demographic variables. When the average number of deaths in the training data was less than 10, or an insufficient number of years of data had over zero deaths, the forecast was not calculated. This is displayed as an “NaN”.
