Pennsylvania Birth Forecasts

Introduction

This page shows the results of models used to calculate forecasts for the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2025 to 2027. The forecasted figures should be used cautiously. Considerable variation may occur between these forecasts and the final data from 2025 to 2027, especially for the forecasts for small number of births. A short description of the data and methods used to calculate the forecasts follows the results.

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Forecast for the state

Forecasts by county

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Forecasts by MCD

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Forecasts by mother’s age

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Data and methods

All data used on this page are from the Pennsylvania Birth Certificate dataset.

An exponential smoothing state space model was used to forecast the number of births by year for Pennsylvania, sub-state geographies, and for each value of the demographic variables. When the average number of births in the training data was less than 10, or an insufficient number of years of data had over zero births, the forecast was not calculated. This is displayed as an “NaN”.